Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has created an “unprecedented” situation that could create economic turmoil around the world, warned JPMorgan chief executive Jamie Dimon in his annual letter to shareholders, the latest in a line of business leaders to speak out on the conflict as Western sanctions and the war disrupt markets and critical supply chains.
JPMorgan could lose around $1 billion over time due to the war, Dimon said, though he added that the bank is not worried about its direct exposure to Russia.
Dimon said uncertainty surrounding the conflict—including how long it might last, further Western sanctions, Russian responses to sanctions, wider impacts on supply chains and the refugee crisis it has created—made it hard to gauge the overall outcome, but noted it is already having a “substantial economic impact” and has “rolled global oil, commodity and agricultural markets.”
“At a minimum, [the war] will slow the global economy,” Dimon warned, “and it could easily get worse.”
Russia’s GDP is likely to drop 12.5% by midyear due to the war and resulting sanctions, Dimon said, with the bank’s economists predicting around 2% growth in the euro area, which is highly dependent on Russian gas and oil, and 2.5% in the US this year, respectively down 2.5 and 0.5 percentage points from the bank’s predictions six weeks ago.
Dimon urged the US to spearhead a new “Marshall Plan”—the American initiative to help Europe recover after World War Two—to reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian energy exports, ramping up investments in clean energy, promoting energy security, leading the way in setting policies for low-carbon solutions and implementing policies to start cutting emissions today.