New York City has been struggling to fill jobs and reclaim its workforce, according to a new report from the New York Federal Reserve.
Data published in the November 2021 Consumer Expectation Study offset expectations as short-term inflation rose but medium-term inflation fell. Inflation expectations for the next three years fell from 4.2% to 4.0%, marking the first decline in 2021 and only the second decline since October 2020.
The more worrying data showed that average unemployment expectations – the likelihood that the unemployment rate will be higher in a year – rose 0.6% to 36.1%.
The average perceived probability of losing a job in the next 12 months also rose sharply from 11% to 13% – still below the pre-pandemic level of 13.8%, but a worrying indicator nonetheless.
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November job data showed that the country is struggling to recruit new workers after a healthy and robust October.
After adding 531,000 jobs and dropping unemployment to 4.6%, only 210,000 were created in November out of an expected 550,000, making it the worst month ever for job creation this year.
The Omicron variant could be another stumbling block as some jobs have started encouraging workers to stay home for the rest of the year. In the city, the positivity rate doubled over the past week, according to the NYC Department of Health.
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Morgan Stanley’s New York brokers will operate remotely until Jan 3rd, “limiting business meetings”. Citigroup and UBS have since encouraged workers to stay home for the foreseeable future.
“We may have to take a step back,” said a JPMorgan executive.
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The survey analyzed data from an internet-based survey of around 1,300 households.
